ExxonMobil asserted net zero goals for the globe's energy sector are most likely to slip back to 2050 because people protest at stratospheric prices and there is a renaissance in demand for the most carbon-intensive of all of the fossil fuels, coal.
Global emissions will fall by a quarter in 2050, two-fifths shy of cuts needed to meet goals of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Exxon reported Thursday in its Global Energy Outlook. The mid-century projections for emissions are almost 4% above the level of oil major achieved twelve months ago, with rising coal use to underpin variable power from sun and wind and stabilize automobile car sales in Europe and the US underpinning oil demand. If the world moves too fast to build some of these more-expensive sources, consumers will push back, said Chris Birdsall, Exxon's chief economic, energy and strategy planner, during a conference call with reporters. "In democratic nations where there are elections, elections do count. We should anticipate political upheaval that then is capable of slowing things down.".
America's biggest oil supermajor has always maintained that it does see a long-term role for fossil fuels and the world won't be on course to net zero by 2050. But it has more recently been prominent in its criticism of decarbonisation policies which it says make it more expensive to supply energy, especially in Europe.
Conversely, Exxon's projections were roundly criticized as unrealistically pessimistic by activists and they said that high-end projections of future consumption of fossil fuel can close the door to action against global warming - making the world have to live with radically more disastrous temperatures and effects like more heat waves and blazes, more intense and frequent rain and more rising seas.
Demand for oil will peak in 2030, flatten out, and remain over 100 million barrels a day to 2050, Exxon said. The International Energy Agency forecast that demand for oil is projected to increase to 104.4 million barrels a day in 2026 at a slower rate from historic highs.
The biggest change in energy use year-over-year from the Energy Outlook was the use of coal, which hit a record high of 8.8 billion tons in 2024, according to the IEA. Although several countries have vowed to ditch coal, Exxon predicts the world's filthiest fossil fuel will fuel 14% of the world's energy by 2050, at least partly because it can be burned to produce electricity when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.
"World is burning more coal to electricity and it's a story of declining power plant efficiency because the power plants are cycling in an attempt to keep up with the renewables," Birdsall said.
Exxon also increased its projection for natural gas consumption, which it expects to grow more than 20% by mid-century as demand for power around the world rises.