Global liquefied natural gas supply is poised to boom the most since 2019 next year, led by North American production growth, according to the International Energy Agency.
Supply growth will accelerate to 7%, or 40 billion cubic meters per year in 2026, after rising by 5.5% this year, the IEA reported in its quarterly gas market report. Growth will also stem from a project in Qatar.
This to a certain degree will temper market fundamentals and ultimately result in stronger demand growth," IEA gas analyst Gergely Molnar said in a webinar. "2026 will be the initial year of the LNG wave and it will be also to a certain degree a test how demand responds to the stronger growth, especially in Asia.".
Ever since the 2022 energy crisis, when Europe lost most pipeline supplies from Russia, countries globally have outbid one another for a relatively small share of world LNG supply. The IEA forecasts increased fuel production will drive a record amount of gas demand next year, especially in price-sensitive markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
More of the LNG is being used in industry and power generation, and commerce has already spurred this year amid significant supply additions, which were around 60% higher than in 2024. LNG Canada also started exports in recent times, and the majority of the new global flows are being absorbed in Europe that is racing to fill up its plants for this winter.
Qatar's North Field East LNG expansion project will come on stream in the second half of next year, "although much of its hoped-for upside will bleed into 2027," the IEA said in the report.
For the rest of 2025, however, the IEA cautioned that the market is still at risk of shocks.
While new liquefaction projects are set to bring incremental volumes to the market in the latter part of the year, any unexpected setbacks in the start-up and ramp-up schedules of these facilities would essentially tighten the global LNG balance, it said.